For the 10th month in a row, Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Outlook printed a deteriorating negative signal. At -12.7 (against expectations of a modest rise from September’s -9.5 to -6.5) it appears ex-Dallas Fed head Fisher was dead wrong as recession warnings loom large. Below the already ugly headline, the components were a disaster. While production and employment rose (somehow), New orders plunged, Prices Received continued to fall, and Average employee workweek fell for the 9thg time in the last 10 months. Perhaps worst was the drop in hope amid falling workweek and wage growth expectations.
This has never happened outside of a recession… and i snot helped by 12 months of consistent weakness in the New Order growth rates.