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WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ RECOUNT”

Mexico’s Lesson In The Dangers Of The Paper Ballot

The Guardian | August 7, 2006
By Greg Palast

In the six years since I first began investigating the burglary ring we call “elections” in America, a new Voting Reform industry has grown up. That’s good. What’s worrisome is that most of the effort is focused on preventing the installation of computer voting machines. Paper ballots, we’re told, will save our democracy.

Well, forget it. Over the weekend, Mexico’s ruling party showed how you can rustle an election even with the entire population using the world’s easiest paper ballot.

On Saturday, Mexico’s electoral tribunal, known as the “TRIFE” (say “tree-fay”) ordered a re-count of the ballots from the suspect July 2 vote for president. Well, not quite a recount as in “count all the ballots” — but a review of just 9% of the nation’s 130,000 precincts.

The “9% solution” was the TRIFE’s ham-fisted attempt to chill out the several hundred thousand protesting supporters of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador who had gathered in the capital and blocked its main Avenue. Lopez Obrador, the Leftist challenger known by his initials AMLO, supposedly lost the presidential vote by just one half of one percent of the vote.

I say “supposedly” lost because, while George Bush congratulated his buddy Felipe Calderon on his victory, the evidence I saw on the ground in Mexico City fairly shrieks that the real winner was challenger AMLO.

President Bush should consider some inconvenient truths about the Mexican vote count:

First: The exit poll of 80,000 voters by the Instituto de Mercadotecnia y Opinion showed that AMLO bested Calderon by 35.1% to 34.0%.

Second: The precinct-by-precinct returns were quite otherworldly. I used to teach statistics and what I saw in Mexico would have stumped my brightest students.

Mexico dataHere’s the conundrum: The nation’s tens of thousands of polling stations report to the capital in random order after the polls close. Therefore, statistically, you’d expect the results to remain roughly unchanged as vote totals come in. As expected, AMLO was ahead of the right-wing candidate Calderon all night by an unchanging margin — until after midnight. Suddenly, precincts began reporting wins for Calderon of five to one, the ten to one, then as polling nearly ended, of one-hundred to one.
Continue reading ‘“WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ RECOUNT”’

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