Something has changed! After years of consistent down-trend in initial jobless claims, the regime has change since mid-October to an uptrend. This past week saw claims rise 7k to 284k leaving the less-noisy 4-week average at 279k – its highest since early July 2015. Continuing claims also rose to 5 months highs (up over 4% in the last 3 months – the most since June 2009).

This is the largest 3month rise since the end of 2013… (before QE3 was unleashed)

 

And continuing claims surge by their most since 2009…

What many appears to be unable to grasp is that we have seen the best and history tells us what comes next…

 

Charts: Bloomberg


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