Experts Downgrade Worst Case Flu Scenarios

Jeremy Laurance
The Independent
November 9, 2009

[efoods]The 2009 swine flu pandemic may turn out to be the weakest in history. It is spreading more slowly than expected and the latest figures show a flattening, or even a dip, in new infections. It is mild in most people but severe in a few and, while it readily infects children, it appears to spare the elderly. With the vaccine being rolled out – more than four million doses have already been delivered – its impact should be further curbed.

So far in the UK, 154 people have died from the virus, around half of whom were under 45. In addition, 1,431 were admitted to hospital with swine flu last week. But in comparison with previous pandemics – or even seasonal flu epidemics – this is a relatively low toll.

In July, shortly after the World Health Organisation declared the first flu pandemic for 40 years, Britain’s Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, published a worst-case scenario suggesting the country should plan for up to 65,000 deaths.

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