Germany To Leave The Euro?


Market Ticker
September 30, 2011

I don’t usually write on rumors, but this one simply will not go away.

Germany is rumored to have ordered printing plates to resume printing Marks, and is intending to walk.  This does make sense, although the Germans would have to find a way to shield their banks from the impact of a massive shift off the Euro and into the Mark by Germans, which would spike the Mark higher and positivelytrash the Euro’s value.

The usual answer to “why they won’t” is that the Mark would become ridiculously strong and that would kill Germany’s export industry, which being goods based (rather than the faux “export industry” that is often mostly services) would get plastered.  The core of most commentators’ thesis is that this fact would preclude Germany from doing it.

But here’s the problem – playing the bailout game is a tax exactly identical to the impact of that stronger currency, and the bailout game costs you the decision-making power you retain when you are the one in control of your own destiny.

The German people are tired of the crap and with good reason.  They should not have bailed out Greece in the first place; they effectively rewarded cheating, as Greece was caught cooking the books.  Rather than prosecute the banks involved and yanking their charters, along with saying “No Mas!” they knelt down and performed an obscene act – more than once.  There is a political limit to how far you can go with these acts before the people act in whatever manner is necessary to put a stop to it, and the Germans have a long and painful history of what popular tolerance of political stupidity leads to.

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