If Republicans want to surrender the 2016 election, there’s an easy path: nominate Donald Trump.
In fact, not only would Republicans lose in 2016, they could struggle in elections for a generation. Here’s the simple truth: millennials overwhelmingly do not like Donald Trump.
That’s right, Trump doesn’t even break 20 percent among the nation’s largest demographic. A recent CNN/ORC poll confirmed these numbers, showing 73 percent of millennials disapprove of Trump.
Three-in-four millennials disapprove of Trump, and only 19 percent would vote for him. That’s much worse than John McCain in 2008 or Mitt Romney in 2012.
In 2016, millennials will be the largest generation of eligible voters. In 2020 and 2024, they will dominate the electoral process as baby boomers age. Unless Trump can dramatically change his image among next-generation voters, he has no path to victory. That’s why poll after poll after poll shows Trump losing to Hillary Clinton in the general election. The latest poll shows him losing the general election to Clinton by 13 percent.
Here’s the problem for Trump: Yes, he adds some white rural Democrats and independents, but he is losing many more voters than he is bringing in to vote for him.
To attract some non-voters and blue-dog Democrats, Trump is losing millennials, women, and minorities. There simply aren’t enough of the new Trump voters to balance out the vast amounts of voters he is losing.