Those hoping that some dramatic change in UK public sentiment as manifested through polling for or against Brexit would emerge in the aftermath of Jo Cox’ killing, will be disappointed.
As the two most recent polls, one from YouGov/ITV and another from Survation, show opinions remains split right down the middle even as the first unofficial poll by Qriously showed a substantial drop in support for remain:
- U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 44% LEAVE, 42% REMAIN: YOUGOV/ITV
- U.K. SURVATION POLL ON EU SHOWS REMAIN 45%, LEAVE 42%
Furthermore, yesterday’s Opinium poll showed the two sides tied at 44%
- U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 44% REMAIN, 44% LEAVE: OPINIUM POLL
This is in accordance with the latest FT poll tracker, which also shows Remain and Leave tied at 44% in the newspaper’s poll of polls.
The full breaking of polls over the past month shows that the recent surge in Leave momentum…
… may be topping out:
What about the bookkeepers?
As we reported yesterday, here things are vastly different as Bookies continue to expect “Bremain” to win with a substantial margin perhaps as a result of the faltering recent surge in the Brexit numbers. Here are the latest numbers:
- WILLIAM HILL: U.K. EU REF ODDS AT 3/10 REMAIN; 12/5 LEAVE
Or 77% Remain; 29% Leave
- LADBROKES: U.K. EU REFERENDUM ODDS AT 1/3 REMAIN; 9/4 LEAVE
Or 75% Remain, 31% Leave
As Bloomberg summarizes, the oddschecker survey of bookmakers’ implied probability of Brexit based on betting odds drops to 29.8% at 12:37 pm London time, a sharp from from yesterday when the implied probability of Brexit vote closed at 35.8%. Alternatively, the survey of implied probability for “Remain” vote rose to about 75.2% from 70.4% at the close yesterday.
Also according to the survey, the probability that Britons would choose to leave the EU in the June 23 referendum dropped below 40% Friday, after exceeding 44% Thursday, according to Oddschecker’s survey of bookmakers’ implied probability.
But perhaps the most interest comment came moments ago from Nigel Farage where he told with Peston where he had the following exchange with Robert Peston:
Farage: We have momentum. We did have momentum until this terrible tragedy.
Peston: So the tragedy will have an impact on the outcome.
Farage: It’s had an impact on the whole campaign for everybody.
Peston: What impact is that.
Farage: When you are taking on the establishment, you need to have momentum. I don’t know what is going to happen over the course of the next 3 or 4 days, but I would say this. That the action of one person with serious mental issues, frankly what we saw was an act of terrorism. It’s been a dreadful week: Orlando, killings in Paris, now one of our own MPs. It’s difficult to tell but I just think this: those that have made their mind up to leave, cause they want to get control of their country back, they will go out and vote on Thursday.
— Peston on Sunday (@pestononsunday) June 19, 2016
The big question for the Brexit camp is whether they will be enough, and whether the broken momentum will be sufficient to keep the UK in the EU.