The German magazine “Focus” described three possible scenarios for further development of the events in Ukraine.

Poroshenko’s army has little chance to control the Eastern Ukraine as it is too weak to rebuff militias’ attacks, the German magazine “Focus” reported.

The magazine suggests three scenarios for further developments of the situation in Ukraine.

Scenario 1:

Ukraine’s President Poroshenko imposes martial law in Ukraine and declares a state of emergency.  This leads to the limitation of citizens’ rights and possible expropriations to gain money for the country’s defense. The conflict would escalate with renewed force.

However, this scenario is considered highly unlikely as Ukraine has old weapons and is weaker than independence supporters from the military point of view.  The country is also suffering from severe economic recession and needs a respite to solve its domestic problems.

Kiev could have a chance of success only in case of massive military support from the Western countries, the magazine writes. However, Germany has already rejected this option and the US is likely to abandon the idea of weapon supplies as well.

Scenario 2:

Militias in the South-Eastern Ukraine seek to bring the whole Donetsk and Luhansk regions under their control. The fighting continues, Kiev imposes martial law and deploys soldiers to get the territories back.

In this case, Western countries may consent to supply Kiev with weapons or impose further sanctions against Russia.

According to the magazine, this is a likely scenario as the expansion of the area under control to the entire regions of Donetsk and Lugansk would be useful for the militias from the economic point of view.

Scenario 3:

Minsk agreements are implemented, and parties are content with their current territories. The Ukrainian army and militias withdraw their weaponry, while DPR and LPR receive a special status. The conflict becomes ‘frozen’, like in Moldova and Transnistria.

This scenario is likely, but contains a lot of stumbling blocks that should be overcome, the magazine reports. If Kiev does not make concessions to the rebels, a new escalation will be likely to occur anytime.


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