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Prominent Russian Scientist: ‘We should fear a deep temperature drop — not catastrophic global warming’
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Marc Morano
Climate Depot
October 29, 2009
Reprint of new scientific paper: (Full pdf paper available here.)
THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE
(Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. – Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory, Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria – (translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock) Dr. Abdussamatov is featured on page 140 of the 2009 U.S. Senate Report of More Than 700 Dissenting Scientists Over Man-Made Global Warming. Also see "Related Links" below.)
Key Excerpts: Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop. [...] Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop. [...] It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming. [...] We should fear a deep temperature drop — not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis.
Excerpts: Experts of the United Nations in regular reports publish data said to show that the Earth is approaching a catastrophic global warming, caused by increasing emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop.
Life on earth completely depends on solar radiation, the ultimate source of energy for natural processes. For a long time it was thought that the luminosity of the Sun never changes, and for this reason the quantity of solar energy received per second over one square meter above the atmosphere at the distance of the Earth from the Sun (149 597 892 km), was named the solar constant.
- A d v e r t i s e m e n t
Until 1978, precise measurements of the value of the total solar irradiance (TSI) were not available. But according to indirect data, namely the established major climate variations of the Earth in recent millennia, one must doubt the invariance of its value.
In the middle of the nineteenth century, German and Swiss astronomers Heinrich Schwabe and Rudolf Wolf established that the number of spots on the surface of the Sun periodically changes, diminishing from a maximum to a minimum, and then growing again, over a time frame on the order of 11 years. Wolf introduced an index (“W”) of the relative number of sunspots, computed as the sum of 10 times number of sunspot groups plus the total number of spots in all groups. This number has been regularly measured since 1849. Drawing on the work of professional astronomers and the observations of amateurs (which are of uncertain reliability) Wolf worked out a reconstruction of monthly values from 1749 as well as annual values from 1700. Today, the reconstruction of this time series stretches back to 1611. It has an eleven-year cycle of recurrence as well as other cycles related to onset and development of individual sunspot groups: changes in the fraction of the solar surface occupied by faculae, the frequency of prominences, and other phenomena in the solar chromosphere and corona.
Analyzing the long record of sunspot numbers, the English astronomer Walter Maunder in 1893 came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715 sunspots had been generally absent. Over the thirty-year period of the Maunder Minimum, astronomers of the time counted only about 50 spots. Usually, over that length of time, about 50,000 sunspots would appear. Today, it has been established that such minima have repeatedly occurred in the past. It is also known that the Maunder Minimum accompanied the coldest phase of a global temperature dip, physically measured in Europe and other regions, the most severe such dip for several millennia, which stretched from the fourteenth to the nineteenth centuries (now known as the Little Ice Age).
The search for a relationship between large climate variations and phenomena observed in the Sun led to an interest in finding a connection between periods of change in the terrestrial climate and corresponding significant changes in the level of observed solar activity, because the sunspot number is the only index that has been measured over a long period of time.
Determinative role of the Sun in variations in the climate of the Earth
The Earth, after receiving and storing over the twentieth century an anomalously large amount of heat energy, from the 1990’s began to return it gradually. The upper layers of the world ocean, completely unexpectedly to climatologists, began to cool in 2003. The heat accumulated by them unfortunately now is running out.
Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop (Fig. 7, 11). Meantime the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over these years has grown by more than 4%, and in 2006 many meteorologists predicted that 2007 would be the hottest of the last decade. This did not occur, although the global temperature of the Earth would have increased at least 0.1 degree if it depended on the concentration of carbon dioxide. It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming.
The earth is no longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming forecast by some scientists; warming passed its peak in 1998-2005, while the value of the TSI by July – September of last year had already declined by 0.47 W/m2 (Fig. 1).
For several years until the beginning in 2013 of a steady temperature drop, in a phase of instability, temperature will oscillate around the maximum that has been reached, without further substantial rise. Changes in climatic conditions will occur unevenly, depending on latitude. A temperature decrease in the smallest degree would affect the equatorial regions and strongly influence the temperate climate zones. The changes will have very serious consequences, and it is necessary to begin preparations even now, since there is practically no time in reserve. The global temperature of the Earth has begun its decrease without limitations on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions by industrially developed countries; therefore the implementation of the Kyoto protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years.
[...]
Consequently, we should fear a deep temperature drop — not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis.
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October 29th, 2009 at 8:30 am
The NWO/Lib DEMOs will be happy when Chicago is under a mile and a half of ice like it was 100,000 years ago. There will not be any crime then!
roaddog6 Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 8:33 am
I’d like to see this scientist and al gore debate.
StarinaNovak Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Me too. Al Gore is an idiot, he would call upon his right to be an idiot.
Dusty Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Alex’s new DVD “Fall of the Republic” is a great way to wake up the people in our towns. Everyone knows there is something wrong, but they can’t quite figure it out. This film shows the whole picture and the depth of corruption in the government.
I handed out about 120 copies Obama Deception and I plan to do the same for this one.
We all need to hand out copies all over our own towns because the more people we know who are awake, the better off we’re going to be.
I put up a website with the easy step-by-step method I use to make copies that play on even the cheapest DVD player and TV.
Check it out and see how easy it is to copy Alex’s movies (and other movies):
http://www.thetinyspark.com
-Dusty
corvettelady Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
Al Gore is a Traitor making millions with his fake Global Warming crap and god help us if cap & trade is passed then he’ll make billions more!! When he said he invented the Internet, then I knew he was a complete idiot!! Mother Nature goes in cycles just like anything else. Back in the 70’s, it was global cooling!
10mm Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
I bet 20$ on the Russian schients forecast!
williamwallace Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 8:29 pm
Wonders to self if Berack H obama will act like Bush did when he jokes about no weapons of mass destruction under here> Like under 1 1/2 miles of ice. then I can have work as a carpenter again building another arc to float my family away from the NWO destruction like their gods they prey to the human/ angel beings. What freaks they are.
hmmmm Reply:
October 31st, 2009 at 9:09 pm
idiot…just another idiot…
October 29th, 2009 at 8:34 am
They will be dis-credited , ignored and shut up.
.
.
Their opinion does not help the ENSLAVEMENT PROCESS.
October 29th, 2009 at 8:36 am
They will never get the chance to DEBATE.
.
They will all mysteriously commit suicide before that happens.
roaddog6 Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 9:25 am
alex—but it would show a lot of herd members just what an idiot al really is.
October 29th, 2009 at 8:56 am
At the risk of sounding ‘ignorant’, i’d just like to add-
“D’Juh.”
October 29th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Gobal Warming is real im Super Serial!
Dirty Butthole Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Al Gore likes dirty butthole (Bohemian Grove anyone?).
williamwallace Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 8:31 pm
Al Gore eats his own belly buton lint anyone for some cheesey poofs??
Max Reply:
October 30th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
He is the Fattest Vampire I have ever seen. Some insiders say he drinks blood.
October 29th, 2009 at 11:25 am
anyone with any sense always knew al gore was about as intelligent as rocks. his wife tipper tried to censor all those rock bands too, how liberal of them.
this is gonna suck for russia if the earth gets colder. russia is already plenty cold.
October 29th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
I know that climate change scientists will discredit my observation due to lack of research but it just snowed 2 feet in Denver and it’s not even November yet. What does that say? We’ve also had a very cool summer, it didn’t even get above 100 degrees. The summer before last(2007) was hot, I think records were broken in terms of consecutive days above 90 degrees. Last summer wasn’t as hot as 07’s but this summer was cool and very wet. We even saw snowflakes at the end of September and it snowed about four times in October. Since I’ve lived here fall has always been warm. In my home state of Wisconsin, friends and family were telling me that they were having a very cool summer(in terms of temps). Saying that they could hardly go swimming when it usually feels like a jungle there during summer. I know these observations aren’t wrapped in scientific data but it looks to me like it’s cooling down around Middle America.
maelstrom Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
i’m not a climate expert but there is general consensus on the way ice ages start: it’s not the cold winters, it’s the cool summers.
Balgorg Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
The GMST for 2009 is up (warmer) from the last two years, which showed cooling. 2009 isnt over yet though, and I hope we get a global cold snap, just to see the look on the AGW bandwaggons face.
But can anyone trust any scientists data? on either side of the argument? AGW supporters want us to panic because of hotter climate, and Sunspotters want us to panic because of a potential cold snap. Clearly the data on global warming is wrong, but that doesnt mean that the cooling theory is any better does it?
williamwallace Reply:
October 29th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
It means crops will fail or be stunted mass starvation city dwellers will starve they will steal break into peoples houses kill main hurt and die after 6 weeks Mean while back at the ranch . Semi thinking humans will start to move out to the farms to try to steal food from farmers who will have to use leathal force to protect their families. This has the taste of the end of the NWO agenda it would be like a way of god to give us some more time Obviously they didnt count on the sun. Because once a Lie is started it is like a weed that sucks up all resources to keep it alive. eventually it will run out of food and what I mean by food is A lie can only live for so long untill another must be places just outside of the first one to keep the masses moving away from the dying courpse of the Origional lie. That lie is the Federal reserve. Then ww1 then ww2 then the income tax, Then driverlicences, Then korean war, then Kennedy assasination, Then hippies and drugs,then Gulf of tnokin, then vietnam, then watergate, Then cocaine, Then the cold war, then then then then then then then then then 9/11 then patriot act/ Thne warrentless wiretaps, thenpatriot2 then pd51, Then NAU, then stockmarket crash, Then Obama has no proof the be president but who cares its not GW and a 3rd term or is it? See at the heart of it IF Obama gets caught with his pants down lieing to america the globalists will say whoah we never knew. He was a loan liar. He acted on his own. Then another distraction will follow to make us forget how urgent the last chrisis was before. It never changes from each president because when they go into that breffing room something happens to them they become scared little puppys of the masonic tradition to swear allegiance to them on paing of death. That sadly is enough to make them whimp out. I fear If we ever get to see Ron Paul in 2012 If he dose a 180 we have got them.
October 29th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Watch for free:
Fall Of The Republic, Obama Deception, Endgame, Terror Storm, Loose Change, Aaron Russo’s Famous Interview (Must See), Citizen Investigation Team, Fabled Enemies, 911 Blueprint For Truth, and others all in full-length at my website.
http://www.joemarquis.com/videos.htm
October 29th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
al gore-” but im super cereal’s once global warming comes man bear pig will come for us all”
October 29th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Woke up this morning in the So. Cal mountains to the beautiful sight of the 2nd day of cemtrials in the sky, thank you for killing us all.
October 29th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Thank You for censoring my comments, No rights here unless your A.P
October 29th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
the day the temperature drops will be one of the happiest days of my life. So many people call me an idiot for trying to even consider the possibility of global warming being a hoax. I will be able to look them in the face and say: HA! Global warming, my ass!
October 29th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
oh god that’s all we need.. a temperature drop. Just more money to them evil facist money grabbing gas/electric companies.
October 29th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
Over many years we have all been lied to by our Governments, but not just our Governments but many religous leaders. Many things we have been taught are not even in Scripture and millions have swallowed so many lies by these false prophets. If you are a truth seeker please visit the following web site and take the time to read some of the articles, you will be shocked.
http://www.2besaved.com
Blessings
Ben
October 29th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
the last iceage the global temp.dropped only 6deg.average global.
October 29th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Global warming IS real! The more you idiots keep on denying it the worse it will get. Everyone needs to do everything they can to help slow the effects. If you don’t believe it, the only conclusion is that you haven’t done the proper research. Quit listening to all the conspiracy and do your own homework.
Big Sully Reply:
October 30th, 2009 at 9:47 am
I’ll wade through three feet of snow in Florida and pat you on the back about waking us up to the dangers of GLOBAL WARMING!
Thanks, but I think the science shows a cooling trend
October 30th, 2009 at 2:27 am
Week the FEAR of cooling bothers me about this writer as well. First we know how the establishments always plays both sides so they win no matter WHICH side actually “wins”.
While he is debunking the global warming farce, he is actually raising another by telling us we need to FEAR COOLING instead.
What makes me question the writer motives is the fact taht he admits that cooling WITHOUT FAIL ALWAYS FOLLOWS A WARMING, so if this cycle is a continual cycle and man has “weathered through it” for 6,000 then what is there to FEAR. Instead we just need to prepare for cooling temperatures and move on with BIGGER issues.
So why make weather such a big deal whether it be cooling or warming? Because TOTAL CONTROL is their game and claiming THE SKY IS FALLING in every aspect of our lives and finding ways to tax and control us for every resource including the AIR goal.
October 30th, 2009 at 5:23 am
I live in eastern arkansas and if anyone will go to accuweather right now and look at the cities of Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio on radar you will see 3 scalar wave generators. This is not ground clutter people. I was watching radar when they first appeared. please Alex get a scalar wave on the show ASAP…….there is also activity over Tulsa …..have a look http://www.accuweather.com/rad.....mp;large=0
They are warming the ionsphere to neutrilize the cold jet stream which is directly over these cities. You will not see this in any other part of the country at the moment. So this IS NOT GROUND CLUTTER OR BIRDS MIGRATING!
This technology of weather wars was started in Russia in the 40’s
Not to mention all the other effects they can cause with these weapons such as earth quakes and volcanoes. If anything is causing a FAKE global warming it’s this which is going on all over the world for many years. They create the crisis and offer the solution….A GLOBAL CARBON TAX!
PLEASE SPREAD THE WORD!
October 30th, 2009 at 10:03 am
Snow Shoes…check. Parka…check. thinsulate boots&mittens…check. wool mitten inserts…check. wool socks…check. woolies…check insulated sauna house…check I think I’m good to go…bring it on!
October 31st, 2009 at 8:06 am
We’ve had a really mild and wet summer down here in North Texas. The trees started getting their fall foliage two weeks earlier than usual. Nature will do as it pleases and we have nothing to do with the weather cycle.
At least I live in Texas and won’t get too cold
I guess we will know in a few years what nature has in store for us.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:45 am
Forget about average global temperatures. Forget about ice caps melting and Polar Bears floating across the Atlantic on ice cubes. Forget about rising sea levels, droughts, increased hurricanes, floods and on and on. Also forget about sunspot cycles or El-Nino and La-Nina, or whatever the hell else has been thrown into the mix as a distraction because none of it matters, none of it is relevant. All we have to do is drill down and focus on one thing only.
That one thing is CO2.
It is claimed that humans are responsible for Climate Change because of our 8 (some say 6) giga-tonnes of CO2 emissions per year and that we need to have limits imposed because we need to reduce our emissions of CO2.
So first simply ask yourself this:
Can CO2 trap in heat?
Answer: NO, nothing traps in heat, substances can only absorb and re-emit heat but they cannot trap heat.
Next question, does CO2 absorb heat more strongly than the other gasses in the atmosphere?
Answer: NO, CO2 is only 0.03811% of the atmosphere and remains as solid ice up to a temperature of 194.65 K
Nitrogen and Oxygen which make up 99% of the atmosphere on the other hand, begin to melt at temperatures as low as 50-60 K and so are much stronger absorbers of heat and at the same time, make up most of the atmospheric gasses.
This puts the effect of CO2 into context. CO2 cannot trap heat, no gasses in the atmosphere can. CO2 is a tiny proportion of the gasses in the atmosphere, compared to Oxygen and Nitrogen it is barely noticeable.
So the final question is, are we responsible for Climate Change through our 4.1 ppm in annual CO2 emissions? (4.1 ppm = little more than 1% of a trace gas at 385 ppm)
Answer: NO WE MOST DEFINITELY ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE.
Take that to Copenhagen!
If you would like to know more about the AGW fraud and carbon tax, download this free .pdf book
http://www.spinonthat.com/CO2.html
October 31st, 2009 at 9:46 am
If a family of four exchanged their SUV for four bicycles, they would actually produce more CO2 per mile by cycling than they did when traveling in a modern sports utility vehicle.
Don’t believe AGW is a fraud, know it!
http://www.spinonthat.com/CO2.html
October 31st, 2009 at 10:01 am
Welcome the angel “HOARFROST”, (he’s a good angel).
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:15 am
Studies like the one above will be irrelevent once the Copenhagen treaty is signed. One of the first paragraphs of the treaty says that the signing country must agree with what the UN IPCC has concluded (that humans are responsible for changing the climate). Once this is agreed to, climate science and climate investigation will not be needed any more. So the climate scientists who have been responsible for doing so much of the AGW alarmism will lose their funding. There will not be any neeed for their services anymore. Good bye funding, good bye climate science.