REPORT: What would Russian intervention in Syria look like?

Essential Intelligence
February 7, 2012

Note: Our article from November 26th - Naval Airpower Expo, prelude to Syrian Desert Fox - analyzed the joint brinkmanship game played by NATO and Russia on the Syrian chessboard and examined the possibility of Hegelian co-operation between both of these north Atlantic rivals in the overtake of this former French colony, where each side aims to secure its own regional interests. As of Saturday, February 4th, our earlier prediction seems to be unfolding in rapid yet surprising ways. 

30 years after the Hama massacre by Assad the elder, and many hundreds of dead renegades and civilians killed since this mutiny started - in the very same city – by the Syrian army, and the subsequent UN veto of the SCO leaders China and Russia against NATO “humanitarian” intervention, Russia has decided to protect its naval interests in Syria by means of deploying in Syria Spetsnaz commandos to counter the predictable deployment of GCC \ NATO spec-ops units along the example of the Libyan model tested earlier in 2011 against Qaddafi.

Russia can operate its upper-end fighter jets from the Russian Caucasus in order to cover the Syrian air space (assuming Russia is willing to violate Caucasian border zones of small rivals like Georgia and Azerbaijan), thus overcoming the hundreds of cruise missile aboard the USN flotilla along the Syrian coastal line which threaten the Syrian air bases. Those Jets are Sukhoi35 as well as MiG-31 – both of which are tough challenges for the Israeli F15 and beyond the US Naval air power. Likewise, Russian Sukhoi-34 for deep penetration. This increases the operational tactical radius and amalgamates the Syrian Airspace with the Russian one. Anticipating such intervention of Russian fighter Jets, the U.S. Can deploy F-22 squadrons in Greece and the UK can deploy Eurofighter Typhoon squadrons in Cyprus. 

Theoretically, The USA can also utilize some of the airbases Israel left behind in the Sinai (where the US 82nd division is still deployed as part of the ‘peace-keeping’ force) , for a safe deployment of additional F22 fighters. This deployment is safe since it is far enough from Russia, i.e. beyond the unrefueled combat range of the Russian fighter Jets, takes advantage of Israeli and USN acute early warning and can be effectively protected from terrestrial threats given the wide expanses of empty desert plains around such airbases. 

Interestingly, India decided last month to buy 42 more Su-35 and then a few days ago finally rejected the Typhoon, which it had already long ago described as clearly inferior to then Su-35, in favor of French fighter-bombers named Rafale, which belong in the class of the Mig-29 and F18C

Regional implications 

• A d v e r t i s e m e n t

The implications for Israel, Jordan, The GCC and consequentially to NATO are strategic, up to the level of a new ‘wild-card’ introduced into the eastern Mediterranean sector, and require the upgrade of Israel’s status and capabilities as a NATO partner prior to any preemptive strike on the Iranian regime and its nuclear assets. There is no Arab country that can stand up to Russia, unlike Israel, whose combat pilots have already dealt with the Russians during the 1968-1972 war of Attrition around the Suez canal and its culmination during the year 1973 October / Ramadan War.

This escalation most likely dictates a decisive victory in the Syrian arena by either side prior to the upcoming ‘clash of the titans’ in the Persian gulf. It looks like the Russians hope to at least secure their naval assets along the western coast line in case the regime collapses , since Assad  himself is currently fortifying an Allawite mountain enclave in the north western Syrian mountains, thus protecting the topographically inferior coastal area from its eastern flank. 

Just as we said in the above mentioned previous article :“It is thus clear that a Russian overtake of Syria doesn’t violate the separation lines agreed upon in Yalta between Stalin and Anglo-America and rather allows Russia to preserve under European guidance a former French colony, especially since Russia is now one of the western Atlantic powers”.

This will enable the preservation of the Allawites for later use in history as a divisive force to be reintroduced in to the mix of power struggles. The military threat they face in the near future does not involve massive armored divisions invading from outside, but rather a globalist ‘color invasion’ of a somewhat similar type to the one currently in the making against Israel, which is comprised of externally fomented political unrest, terrorism and propaganda warfare, all working to destabilize the regime and make it implode under its own weight.

The prospects of the Spetsnaz  (photo left) saving Assad’s regime needs be reviewed in historic perspective. On the one hand the Spetsnaz  saved the pro-soviet regime in Prague in spring 1968, 12 years after regular Soviet troops saved the pro-soviet regime in Hungary year 1956. On the other hand, 13 years still earlier i.e. years 1943/4, Mussolini’s regime was brought down forcibly by the allied armies invading from the sea which surrounds most of Italy, inspite of German reinforcements. Syria, in conjunction with Lebanon which it occupies since year 1976, is surrounded entirely by US dominated territories and by the sea where it outweighs the meager Russian flotilla.

Thus it seems the Spetsnaz in Syria, in conjunction with the operations of the Russian Navy and airforce are mostly intended to buy time for the Iranian nuclear program, by means of confining the anti-Assad coalition comprising the west and the Arabs to Guerrilla warfare, against the massive Syrian land army with its thousands of tanks, thousands of APC and thousands of Howitzers. If the USA wishes to progress quickly on Syria it might try to utilize the trick of drawing its authority from the need to bring Assad to court in the Hague for his alleged murder of the Lebanese Prime-Minister Rafic Al-Hariri  year 2005 (probably fabricated by the CIA), thus neutralizing the Russo-Chinese protection of Assad in the UN Security Council.

Read full report here

This article was posted: Tuesday, February 7, 2012 at 12:56 pm

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