The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) released an assessment of possible scenarios for Russia’s collapse last week.
The report, written by visiting fellow Nikolay Petrov, concludes that the Russian political system “has no capacity to reform, and faces growing economic woes, crumbling infrastructure, and warring elites.”
A combination of falling oil prices and sanctions enacted against Moscow in response to its invasion of Ukraine have had increasingly negative effects on the Russian economy, raising questions about the sustainability of Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s regime.
Petrov identified three possible outcomes for Russia. The first is some manner of “regime change,” where the current Russian political system collapses under stress from sanctions and low oil prices.