There’s at least a 97% chance Donald Trump secures the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright before the GOP convention, according to the Princeton Election Consortium.
The PEC performed statistical analysis on the current state of the race to determine the importance of the upcoming Indiana primary, and actually found that with his current support, Trump will likely hit over 1284 delegates even if he loses Indiana.
“Media types want you to get your knickers in a twist about Indiana, however, the data suggests that it doesn’t matter any more,” PEC’s Sam Wang revealed. “Rationally speaking, it is probably time to stop writing so much about the Republican race for delegates.”
“Also, a moratorium on ‘brokered-convention’ articles?”
The analysis was based on current poll data and Google’s correlate-based estimates for recently unpolled states.
“Of those states, Trump is favored in West Virginia (34 delegates) and is near-tied in Oregon and Washington (proportional representation), and the rest are Cruz states,” he continued. “Put through the PEC delegate simulator, the median delegate count [if Trump wins Indiana] is 1333 (interquartile range 1304-1339) [and then] the probability of getting to 1237 delegates is 98%.”
That’s going to make it extremely difficult for the GOP establishment to steal the nomination from Trump at the national convention in July, and it explains why many insider are finally warming up to Trump.
And when Trump was asked about Ted Cruz picking Carly Fiorina as his vice president choice yesterday, he said Cruz was “wasting his time,” and he definitely had a point.