Lately, the Senate forecasting models have been inching further and further in Republicans’ favor — and Tuesday morning, our average of forecasts gave the GOP a 69 percent chance of takeover, the party’s highest yet.
Five of the six forecasts we’re tracking give the GOP between a 60 percent and 68 percent chance of takeover, while the outlier Washington Post forecast puts their chances all the way up at 95 percent, for reasons explained here.
The reason why is quite simple. Since September, Republicans have led a majority of polls in every competitive Senate race except Kansas and North Carolina. This includes seats in deep red states already held by the GOP (Georgia and Kentucky), deep red states in which Democrats are defending seats (South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska), and purple states (Iowa, Colorado). If Republicans win every seat where the polls currently show them leading, they’ll end up with 52 seats — one seat to spare.