October 6, 2012

In light of the reader interest in the post yesterday on the impact of sanctions on Iran’s strategic options, this Real News Network interview provides a useful, if sobering, follow on (hat tip charles sereno). Lawrence Wilkerson describes which constituencies in the US, Iran, and Israel regard a conflict in their best interest, and how the evolving drama reminds him of the march towards war in Iraq.

More at The Real News

But is the focus on Iran misplaced? Reader Antifa pointed out yesterday that a much bigger shoe may drop before the escalating conflict with Iran reaches a critical stage:

For the record, the “Straights of Hormuz” is a cross-dressing barbershop quintet based in Dhubai who put on quite an entertaining show at private dance and drinking parties for the wealthy cosmopolitans of the Muslim world. Risque Islamic humor and a bit of burlesque. You know: a few well-turned ankles, a glimpse under the burkha. The usual. They’d do great in Vegas, only with less fabric.

Oh yeah, they’re all five flaming gays but no one cares. It’s all good while the money and the bubbly flows. Kind of reminds me of Berlin the year before the Reichstag caught fire.

On the other hand, the “Strait of Hormuz” (singular — there’s only one) is a very narrow waterway through which most of the Middle East’s oil ships in great, hulking supertankers. It’s not as entertaining as the Straights, but performs admirably as a bottleneck for the lifeblood of Western economies.

Along the entire Iranian shoreline of the Persian Gulf leading up to the Strait are the formidable Atlas Mountains, a desert warren of smuggler’s routes, caves, tunnels and tens of thousands of places to stage ambushes of all sorts. Truly a godforsaken, dried out wasteland of steep slopes, snakes, scorpions and hidey-holes. No army in the world could put enough people in there to police it, to keep it from being a perpetual hornet’s nest of missile-launching Iranian patriots forever and ever, Amen.

No military vessel of any kind could survive 24 hours in the Gulf or threaten Iran from there in any way. Lloyd’s of London would not insure a single oil tanker going there, so none would. Please note that only one Iranian patriot need sink only one tanker, with one missile, to bring all shipping to a complete halt, compliments of Lloyd’s. Nobody ships without insurance, and insurance would be unobtainable.

The real risk of war and instability in the Middle East lies not with gay crooners nor sanctions nor imaginary Iranian nukes nor Israel’s psychotic ambitions for Lebensraum. (Wherever do they get such notions?)

It lies in the imminent collapse of the Saudi monarchy due to political decrepitude and mortal age. There are nothing but very old men in the line of succession, and over half the Kingdom’s male population is under the age of 15 — and half of those are unemployed as a permanent condition. Wards of the state, literally.

When the Kingdom falls in the next few years, it will be impossible to stop the popular will of the Saudi people for an Islamic state. Nor can American or other Western troops set foot there to forcibly establish a friendly regime. That would be an unforgivable blasphemy upon the land of Mecca. So we won’t be invited to the party, as in Libya.

The other popular will of the Wahabi Islamists will be to take on Iran, the den of the Shia dogs and infidels. Iran will be delighted to return the sentiments and activities. There will be no lasting peace between Sunni and Shiite fundies. It will very much get in the way of shipping oil in our direction.

Saudi Arabia is where the collapse is going to come from, and it will be overnight, most likely.

Everyone over there knows it’s coming, knows the false stability and prosperity of recent decades is hanging by a thread. The Straights even have a cute little ditty about it called “Wahabi Crude.” And those of you who’ve heard them sing it know that it is. But then, that’s their forte.

The Straights are just divine.

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