August 2, 2008
Israel has entered the last phase of its war preparations against Iran. Recent resignation of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, a proponent of negotiations and concessions, and several other factors speak well for the imminent war. Israel’s recent creation of the US missile defense shield can be another addition on the list. The US administration also tries to use the Israeli forces to play a dirty trick on Russia.
The resignation of the Israeli prime minister has become another reason to raise the subject of imminent war between Israel and Iran. Many Israeli politicians dislike Ehud Olmert’s views on the need to conduct negotiations with neighboring states, as well as his intention to discuss an opportunity to return Golan Heights to Syria.
There are other aspects which testify to a possible war in the nearest future. The USA is going to ship a radar station to Israel to track down missile launches. Furthermore, the United States intends to use the radar together with Israel . The USA will provide Israel with early missile launch prevention information, as well as technical and financial aid for the creation of the missile defense system.
According to Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the radar station will be deployed in Israel before the new US administration officially takes the White House in January 2009.
The US administration believes that the radar station is required to defend Israel against Iranian missiles. It does not go about the deployment of interceptor missiles yet. Nevertheless, it is obvious that the distance to Iran is almost the same as the distance to Russia, which vehemently opposes the deployment of US missile system in Europe.
The station will give the USA an opportunity to use its radar towards Russia freely, without any explanations or control. In addition, the station will give Israel more confidence in its war preparations.
Israel acts by the law of war and seriously prepares to attack Iran’s nuclear objects. It transpired that the top Israeli administration had had a secret meeting with architect of Operation Opera, Retired General Aviam Sela. It was Sela, who planned the surprised Israeli air strike against the Iraqi nuclear reactor 27 years ago. In addition to Opera, the general also elaborated and conducted several operations to destroy Syrian air defense batteries in Lebanon during the First Lebanese War in 1982.
Israeli officials have been talking about Iranian nuclear threat for about a decade. However, now is the time, when Tel Aviv seriously considers a question about the use of military force against Iran . The nuclear issue is obviously the key question in the opposition between Iran and Israel, but there is a more global question, which explains why Israel fears Iran.
Iran strives to obtain the status of a regional superpower against the background of its open hostility against Israel. Iran’s views and intentions pose a threat to Israel ’s role and place in the Middle East. Iranian nuclear weapons endanger the existence of the State of Israel even if the weapons are used with the deterrent value only.
One shall assume that Israel may claim its entire responsibility for the start of a military action against Iran, if the action takes place, of course. Ex-head of Mossad, Shabtai Shavit said that Israel would not be waiting for USA’s permission to attack Iran ’s nuclear facilities.
The US administration does not hurry to use its military force against Iran ’s nuclear program. US officials prefer to wage psychological war against Iran, which could also be a good start of a real war.
Nevertheless, there is a number of circumstances, which do not let the USA launch a large-scale military action against Iran. The current political stability in Iraq and Afghanistan leaves much to be desired. A limited contingent of coalition troops in Afghanistan is obviously not enough to conduct large-scale military operations in the south of the war-torn nation. US and coalition troops make up about 200,000 people in the region. The Pentagon cannot provide more.
Iran will not miss a chance to strike back on oil pipelines and oil structures of neighboring Arab states. Even a slight military action in the region may cause serious damage to the world economy. The European Union, China and India will suffer from the possible fuel crisis most. The USA would not mind weaker competitors, of course. It is an open secret that the economies of those industrial giants largely depend on crude shipments from the Persian Gulf. The war could be a good reason.
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