Young voters and independents are key to Paul victory this week

Steve Watson
January 2, 2011

A new two day tracking poll from Public Policy Polling finds that Ron Paul is still leading the race in Iowa just one day before voters take to the polls.

The race between Paul and Romney is still tight with Paul holding at 20 percent, according to the poll, and Romney at 19 percent.

The survey also finds that Rick Santorum is enjoying a late surge in popularity and currently stands at 18 percent. Newt Gingrich is at 14 percent, Rick Perry at 10 percent, and Michele Bachmann at 8 percent.


Unlike the numbers released last week, and the fudged mainstream media reports on them, this poll takes into account Ron Paul’s popularity with non-Republican voters.

“Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday” PPP reports. “It just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus.”

“Among actual Republican voters Paul is tied for 3rd place with Gingrich at 17%, behind Romney’s 21% and Santorum’s 19%. But with independents and Democrats who plan to vote, which we peg at 24% of the electorate, Paul leads with 30% to just 14% each for Santorum and Romney.” the report continues.

In summary, Paul can win in Iowa if young voters and independents turn out.

“Paul’s unique appeal could confound some of the usual patterns about who turns out for these contests.” PPP writes.

Paul’s appeal among young people was confirmed once again in the first ever ‘Social Primary’, a study analyzing the popularity, receptiveness, interaction, network reach and trust of candidates across different social media channels.

The study, carried out by consultancy outfit Sociagility, finds that Paul tops the social media scorecard and reports a “strong, positive correlation between social media performance and voting intention in Iowa”.

Individual results were as follows:

Appearing on CNN’s State of the Union with Candy Crowley yesterday, Paul commented that realistically he doesn’t expect to finish lower than second place in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses.

“I may come in first. I may come in second. I doubt I’ll come in third or fourth,” Paul said. “I would say the people are with me on this, and the momentum is going to continue regardless of what happens and what place I am Tuesday night.”

When asked about the possibility of a third party run, Paul commented “I’m essentially tied for first place. Why would I even consider doing anything like that?”

“I have no plans of doing it. We’re doing very, very well. People should just be a little bit patient.” The Congressman added.

Watch the entire interview below:


Steve Watson is the London based writer and editor for Alex Jones’, and He has a Masters Degree in International Relations from the School of Politics at The University of Nottingham in England.

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