A new study by The Australian National University finds that in the “best case scenario,” coronavirus will claim 15 million lives worldwide and shave $2.4 trillion off the global GDP.
The paper examined seven different models of how COVID-19 could spread outside of China, ranging from low to high severity.
“But even in the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven, which the paper acknowledged were not definitive — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million,” reports Yahoo News.
The results were modeled on the 1968-1969 Hong Kong flu pandemic, which killed 1 million people.
Under the worst case scenario, modeled on the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed up to 50 million people from 1918 to 1920, the coronavirus would kill more than 68 million people and slash $9 trillion from the global GDP.
“Even in the best-case scenario of a low-severity impact, the economic fallout is going to be enormous and countries need to work together to limit the potential damage as much as possible,” said Professor Warwick McKibbin, one of the authors of the paper.
Globally, there have been more than 90,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and more than 3,000 people have died.
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