Crude oil will likely continue falling before posting only a mild recovery in the second half of this year, a Reuters survey of analysts showed on Friday, with prices set to average even less in 2015 than during the global financial crisis.
The survey of 33 economists and analysts forecast North Sea Brent crude would average $58.30 a barrel in 2015, down $15.70 from last month’s poll, in the biggest month-on-month forecast revision since prices last collapsed in 2008-2009.
If the forecasts for 2015 prove correct prices will average the lowest since 2005, even if they recover after June, illustrating the impact of Opec’s decision to maintain output in the face of fast-growing US shale output.
“It should be a year of differing halves. The likelihood of further near-term fund selling will see Brent trade down to $42 per barrel and WTI at $40 per barrel by the end of Q1 2015,” ANZ analyst Mark Pervan said.