More Americans now identify as Republicans than Democrats, for the first time ever in the third quarter of an election season, says Gallup.
According to Gallup’s polling, conducted between July and September, 48% of Americans either identify with or lean towards the Republican Party, against 45% for the Democrats.
This is the first time in the third quarter of a presidential election that Republicans have outnumbered Democrats in Gallup polling.
The poll reveals that Americans believe the Republican Party is a better choice when it comes to the major issues, from the economy to immigration.
Gallup notes that measures of each party’s performance on key issues has been a strong indicator for election outcomes since 1948. The party that performs best on these issues almost always tends to win.

The polling data also show that Americans generally view the current economy in negative terms. Only 22% of respondents described current economic conditions as “excellent” or “good,” against a whopping 62% who believed the economy is “getting worse.”
Gallup’s overall Economic Confidence Index score is -28. As the pollsters note, this is another strong predictor that the election will swing against the incumbent Democrats.
“In incumbent election years, a -28 economic confidence score would be closer to what it has typically been in losing (1992, 2008, 2016) rather than winning (1996, 2004, 2012) years for the president’s party. In 2020, Americans’ evaluations were essentially neutral when Donald Trump lost, though other incumbent presidents won when there were similar levels of economic confidence.”
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