Hurricane Helene could swing the election against Donald Trump, according to Politico.
“It’s the first catastrophic event in U.S. history to hit two critical swing states within six weeks of a presidential election,” write Ariel Wittenberg, Avery Ellfeldt and Thomas Frank.
They note that virtually all of the parts of North Carolina and Georgia that have been most seriously affected by the flooding are Republican. Trump won 61% of the vote in the worst affected areas of North Carolina, and 54% of the vote in the worst affected areas of Georgia.
Current polls show Trump leading North Carolina and Georgia by 1%, within the margin of error.
The Politico article goes on to note there will almost certainly be effects on voter turnout, and that both states face “crucial decisions” in the coming days about how to help people vote, including whether to extend voter-registration deadlines, give more time for absentee ballots and set up polling places in new locations that can be accessed.
“State records show that nearly 40,000 absentee ballots were mailed to voters in the 25 North Carolina counties that were declared a disaster following Helene. Fewer than 1,000 have been returned,” the article states.
A 2022 study showed that voter turnout fell below historical averages in the Republican Pandhandle counties of Florida after Hurricane Michael, in 2018.
Chris Cooper, a political scientist, spoke to Politico and told them Helene could “dramatically change who is in the electorate.”
“In a state like North Carolina where margins matter, then every little tweak to the electorate could be the tweak that makes the difference. It’s right on the razor’s edge between red and blue.”
In the week since Hurricane Helene made landfall, the federal government has been sharply criticized for its response, which has been compared to the bungling that took place after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
The federal government has been accused of prioritising the well-being of Ukrainians and Israelis overseas, and of illegal aliens at home, over the residents of the Carolinas and Georgia.
Many have suggested the lackadaisical response may in fact be deliberate, because the areas worst affected by the disaster are all largely Republican.
There have been accusations that civilians attempting to provide supplies using helicopters and aid search and rescue have been turned away or even arrested for “interfering” in the disaster-response.
