The hawkish Washington DC-based think tank, The Institute for Study or War (ISW), had just prior to Ukraine’s Sunday shock drone operation which reportedly took out some 40 military aircraft deep inside Russian territory issued a report saying President Vladimir Putin is prepared for war with NATO if things escalate to that point.
A May 30 decree issued by Putin concerning the Russian defense industry base (DIB) would enable the government to legally take over military contractor firms if they do not abide by wartime martial law orders.
“Putin is likely setting legal conditions to allow the Russian government to commandeer elements of Russia’s economy and DIB should the Kremlin introduce full martial law in order to transition the country to a full wartime footing,” ISW wrote on UnderstandingWar.Org.
“ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is preparing Russian society and economy for a protracted war in Ukraine, indicating that Russia is not interested in engaging in good faith negotiations to reach a diplomatic settlement to its war in Ukraine.”
Certainly Sunday just brought the world a big step closer to witnessing potential all-out war in Eastern Europe, given the Zelensky-ordered drone swarm attacks are already being called ‘Russia’s Pearl Harbor’.
“The Kremlin is continuing efforts to prepare Russian society and the Russian defense industry base (DIB) for a protracted war with Ukraine and potential future war with NATO,” ISW concluded. “Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 30 allowing the Russian government to revoke the rights of shareholders of defense industrial enterprises in the event that the enterprise fails to fulfill state defense orders during martial law.”
“The decree enables the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade to appoint a management company to act as the sole executive body of the enterprise in order to fulfill contractual obligations to the Russian government,” the study says.
And it applies to “civilian aviation and shipbuilding companies, military development and production companies, and government subcontractors.”
Sunday’s major attack on Russian airbases may only serve to accelerate a possible Kremlin move toward martial law and formal declaration of all-out war in Ukraine.
Despite Kiev and Ukraine supporters praising the effectiveness of Sunday’s operation, the reality is that instead of translating into strategic battlefield gains, this only pokes the bear in a major way. Unverified reports say that ballistic missiles at silos across Russia are being readied.
We are likely to see Kiev soon get pummeled once again along with places like Odessa which have been for the most part sparred utter destruction thus far in the war.
Russia will likely ramp up attacks on ‘command centers’ throughout Ukraine, including those believed staffed by foreign advisers and officials. A big question for the Kremlin will be whether Western intelligence helped in Sunday’s attacks, which saw several Russian long-range bombers destroyed. Another question that remains is: will Monday’s peace talks in Istanbul still proceed at this point? There’s little doubt that Putin is readying a massive, painful retaliatory attack on Ukraine.
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