Durable Goods New Orders dropped 2.0% MoM in August, the biggest drop since March (but modestly beat expectations of a 2.3% drop). This extends the ex-transports YoY losing streak to 7 months of declines flashing recessionary warnings left and right. Perhaps most notable is the 0.2% drop in Capital goods Shipments (dramatically missing expectations of a 0.5% rise) and the weakest print since May.

Durable Goods New Orders YoY down for 7 consecutive months.


The less volatile ex-transports series stangated in August, on expectations of a 0.1% increase for the month, and dropping 3.9% Y/Y is now also down 7 months in a row.


But if headline durables were bad, than core capex in the form of capital goods non-defense ex aircraft both shipments and orders was a total collapse.

To wit: orders.

And shipments.


Paging the NBER: feel free to admit the US is in a recession any time now.

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