Trump haters (and there are many of you), brace yourselves.
The polls are showing Democratic contender Hillary Clinton as the odds-on favoured winner in Tuesday night’s election, but the S&P 500 stock market index begs to differ.
The index’s movements in the months ahead of a U.S. election have been a reliable indicator of the outcome: When the S&P 500 is up in the three months before an election, the incumbent party controlling the White House (this year, the Democrats) wins, and when it’s down, the incumbent party loses.
Well this year, the S&P 500 is down 4.5 per cent in the three months leading up to the election, predicting a Trump win.
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