A lot has been written recently about how U.S. stocks usually perform well following the midterm elections. But a deeper dive into the data shows the post-midterms rally hinges on the majority party maintaining control of the House.

Data compiled by Fundstrat Global Advisors showed the median stock-market return since 1896 was only 1.9 percent a year after the House majority flipped from one party to the other.

Meanwhile, the median return totaled 16.8 percent when the House majority stayed the same after the midterms.

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