Brett LoGiurato
Business Insider
Thursday, June 28, 2012

As the Supreme Court prepares to hand down its decision on the Affordable Care Act on Thursday, the only market offering its prediction thinks Obamacare’s key element will be ruled unconstitutional.

The Ireland-based Intrade market has the odds of the Supreme Court overturning the individual mandate at 75.5 percent as of this post. Here’s a look at how it’s changed over time:


Obamacare InTrade



The odds spiked into the 60-percent range after March’s oral arguments were deemed a disaster for President Barack Obama and his signature piece of legislation. The only time it had climbed over 50 percent was in December, when the Supreme Court decided it would hear the case.

Intrade has been an inaccurate predictor before. For example, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry were, at one point, better bets than Mitt Romney to win the Republican nomination.

The odds of overturning the individual mandate by next year are even greater, according to Intrade:


Obamacare InTrade


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