Few institutions have a better track record calling presidential races than the U.S. stock market. At the moment, it’s sending information that counts against Democrat Hillary Clinton.
The performance of the S&P 500 Index has signaled the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, according to an analysis by Strategas Research Partners LLC. A gain in the benchmark for American equity in the three months prior to the vote has seen the incumbent party win 86 percent of the time since 1928. Right now, the benchmark gauge is down 3.6 percent since Aug. 8 with just a week until the vote, a fact that in isolation augurs well for Donald Trump.
Aside from the three-month interval, the S&P 500 fell Tuesday by the most in three weeks, slipping for a sixth day to 2,111.72, making its first foray below 2,100 since July 7 before rebounding. The gauge is in its longest slide since August 2015 amid polls showing the race for the White House is tightening. The CBOE Volatility Index surged Tuesday by 9 percent to the highest since June 27.