Donald Trump is now leading Hillary Clinton in the notoriously biased ABC News/Washington Post poll despite a massive oversampling of Democrats.
Trump leads Clinton 46%-45%, with Gary Johnson dropping to 3% and Jill Stein sitting at 2% in the latest ABC/Washington Post tracking poll, marking the first time he’s lead Clinton in the ABC poll since May.
Trump’s lead is especially telling given the poll’s +10% over sampling of Democrats compared to Republicans. 38% of those polled identified themselves as Democrats while 28% said they were Republicans; 29% identified themselves as independents.
The poll’s methodology makes it clear that the number of self-identified Democrats who intend to vote for Trump has increased significantly, rendering the over sampling of Democrats to skew polls for Clinton useless.
“Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, meanwhile, Trump’s support has gone from 5 to 9 percent, a slight change but a statistically significant one.”
Democratic voters abandoning Clinton, combined with the increasing number of Republican voters consolidating behind Trump, have pushed even biased polls like the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll to show a lead for Trump.
In an attempt to downplay the results, ABC News dismisses Trump’s 48%-41% lead among likely voters in five toss-up states – Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah – as “not a significant difference given the 5.5-point error margin at this sample size.”
The poll also shows enthusiasm among Hillary Clinton supporters has declined 7%, most notably after FBI Director James Comey reopened the investigation into Clinton’s private email server.
Only 45% of Clinton’s supporters are strongly enthusiastic about voting for her compared to 53% of Trump supporters who say they are strongly enthusiastic.
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