Donald Trump is poised to win New York in a landslide on Tuesday but he could leave as many as two-dozen critical delegates on the table by failing to win an outright majority in every corner of the state, according to new congressional district-level polling provided to POLITICO.
The survey from Republican firm Optimus Consulting shows Trump doubling his next closest competitor, John Kasich, 49 percent to 24 percent, with Ted Cruz far behind with 14 percent. But even as the survey has him leading in all 27 congressional districts, Trump’s margins will prove crucial in the hunt for New York’s 95 delegates, from Buffalo to Ithaca to Bethpage.
Under the state’s complex rules, all three delegates in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts are awarded to the winner if he or she gets to 50 percent there — meaning that even a dominant Trump performance short of that mark could leak some delegates to his rivals. If Trump wins a congressional district by only a plurality, he’ll receive two delegates, and the runner-up will receive one.
In the poll, Trump’s strongest showings are on Long Island and in Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island in New York City, where he’s above or within the margin of error of 50 percent in 10 congressional districts. His weakest spots are a swath of upstate districts where he polled closer to 40 percent than to a majority. In the two congressional districts that cover Buffalo and its surrounding area, Trump hovered right around 50 percent.