Stock markets in the US have climbed higher partly because of President Donald Trump’s policies. But they will go “haywire” if he fails to win a second term in the White House.
That’s according to veteran investor Mark Mobius, who pointed out that, since he took office in 2017, Trump made several moves, like slashing corporate tax rates, that many have considered as pro-business.
In an interview with CNBC, Mobius pointed out to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average having risen by more than 30 percent since the beginning of 2017, with the Nasdaq Composite growing by around 45 percent. Such optimism in the stock markets could be disrupted if Trump loses in next year’s presidential race, the investor warned.
“I think the markets then will go haywire because they’ve been depending on Trump policies to keep on pushing the market up and also higher growth rate in the US.”
Mobius explained that, for now, “it doesn’t look likely” that Trump will lose but, while sentiment in the media appeared to be “overwhelmingly” against the US president, that could continue to build until the election next year.
“That’s why I’m a little concerned about this,” he said.
According to the investor, who has been operating in emerging and frontier markets for more than three decades, the run-up in US stocks means that prices may already be peaking. Economies in Europe and Japan look like they’re “going nowhere,” Mobius said, noting that he doesn’t see a lot of investment opportunities in the major developed markets.
The latest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve adds another reason to invest in emerging markets, he said. Lower interest rates are typically bad for the US dollar, and that’s good for currencies in emerging markets.
“The search for yield is the name of the game,” according to the billionaire fund manager. “So, emerging markets have an opportunity here not only because of the rate cut but because their companies are paying pretty good yields.”
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