October 27, 2011

The U.S. State Department recently withdrew its ambassador in Syria Robert Ford because of serious concerns about his personal safety.

It seems that the recent changes of situations are proving that Syria will be the next Libya. Since Qaddafi was killed, the contradictions between the Untied States and Syria have been intensifying. Both countries have withdrawn their ambassadors. As the U.S. ambassador in Syria was being withdrawn, the severity of United Sates’ accusations against Syria is also escalating. John McCain, a senator of the Republican Party of the United States, said that Syria is a focal point of the United States’ attention and the military operation is an option for the United States.

According to the current situations faced by Syria, including the sanctions and intimidations from the United States, United Kingdom, France and other countries and the prepared Syrian rebels, it seems that Bashar al-Assad will be the next Qaddafi.

Though it may not have the same natural resources as Libya, Syria is important for its strategic geographic position. If the West launches a war in Syria, it probably will have to pay a price that is much higher than the price it had paid for the Libyan War. The war probably will even turn into a blasting fuse and lead the entire Middle East to an irremediable chaos. Therefore, it is a gamble for the West to launch a war in Syria, and it is uncertain that whether the West will win or not.

Some media agencies and experts said that the losses were greater than gains in the Libya war. Particularly, the serious injury and death of the long-term mighty leader Muammar Qaddafi have enabled some countries to see through many things. Syrian President Bashar Assad has perhaps been very impressed with Qaddafi’s suffering just before and after his death. The miserable end of Qaddafi will only make Assad tougher.

The death tolls in the Libya war have reached at least 30,000. If a war takes place in Syria, Assad, who is clearly aware of the consequences of failure, will perhaps take lessons from Qaddafi and try all means to fight the opposition. Such a mindset would likely result in a higher number of deaths and injuries related to the Syria war.

Syria has a far stronger military than Libya. Syria’s military is the strongest in the Arab world. If Assad resolves to fight to the end, the Syria war will be crueler than the Libya war, with more deaths and a longer duration.

At the same time, al-Assad may make the desperate move of attacking Israel. According to a report by the Israel-based Jerusalem Post in July, the Israeli intelligence agency found that the Syrian military were conducting unusual troop movements in the border areas and might launch long-range ballistic missiles toward Israel. Israel said that Syria might want to distract domestic and international attention by fighting a war with Israel.

Therefore, if Western powers launch a war against Syria, al-Assad may fire missiles into Israel, which will plunge the entire Middle East into even greater chaos. Not long ago, al-Assad said during a meeting with the Turkish foreign minister that he would shower Israel with missiles if NATO or the United States attacked Syria.

If a war in Syria occurs, blood, violence, and chaos will again become key buzzwords in the Middle East and North Africa. Under current circumstances, a Syrian war would cost Western powers dearly, and it would be an unwise move and a risky gamble to launch such a war.

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