The World Bank on Wednesday slashed its forecast for Russia’s economy over the next two years, saying growth would stagnate amid a lack of structural reforms and Western sanctions over Russia’s role in the Ukraine conflict.

In its biannual report, the World Bank cut its forecast for Russian economic growth to 0.3% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016 under its baseline scenario from 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively–well below the government’s estimates.

Even if Western sanctions are quickly repealed, the economy would only inch upward, while an increase in geopolitical tensions would bring a small recession, the bank said.

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