Host of CNN’s Margins of Error podcast, Harry Enten, told viewers on Wednesday that signs point to GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump achieving an election victory this upcoming Tuesday.
Making an appearance on CNN News Central, Enten explained certain key metrics signal good news for Republicans.
If Trump wins, the signs were there all along.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 30, 2024
No incumbent party has won another term with so few voters saying the country is on the right track (28%) or when the president's net approval rating is so low (Biden's at -15 pts).
Also, big GOP registration gains in key states. pic.twitter.com/knDQ2HOFtJ
The data analyst quoted polls showing very few Americans believe the nation is headed in the right direction.
“Just 28% of Americans, voters think the country is going in the right direction, is on the right track. And I want to put that into a historical perspective for you. Okay, what’s the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses? It’s 25%,” Enten explained. “That 25% looks an awful bit like that 28% up there. It doesn’t look anything, anything like this 42% [average when the incumbent party won] doesn’t look anything like this 28%.”
He added, “So the bottom line is very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with [when] it wins. In fact, I went back through history, there isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won. They always lose when just 28% of the country believes that the country is on the right track.”
More numbers reveal Joe Biden’s low approval ratings could spell trouble for Kamala Harris, providing historical references.
“Now, we don’t know if Kamala Harris is going to succeed Joe Biden, but we know back in 2008, George W. Bush’s approval rating was down in the 20’s. Did a Republican succeed George W. Bush? No. How ’bout in 1968? Lyndon Baines Johnson, his net approval rating was negative. Did a Democrat succeed Lyndon Baines Johnson? No. How ’bout in ’52 Harry S. Truman, his approval rating was in the 20’s, if not the upper teens.”
“Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in ’52? My memory, no… Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican, succeeded Harry S. Truman. So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden’s approval rating is way underwater at this point.”
“So, Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk,” he continued. “And so the bottom line is if Republicans win, come next week, Donald Trump wins comes next week, the signs all along will have been obvious. We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”
Last week, Enten explained Trump even has a shot at securing the popular vote, which hasn’t happened for a Republican candidate in twenty years.
There's a real shot Trump may get his great white whale: winning the popular vote. Polls show the race nationally is basically even as Trump runs far ahead of where he polled in 2016 or 2020.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 25, 2024
He'd be the 1st Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years & only 2nd in 36 years. pic.twitter.com/Pp4LJPwUZe