The first poll conducted after Macron announced a snap election suggests French President Emmanuel Macron is on course for a stunning defeat at the hands of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party.
The poll from Harris Interactive reveals that National Rally would obtain a majority of between 235 and 265 seats, whereas Macron’s party would win perhaps half that total—between 125 and 155 seats.
EXCLUSIF @Challenges – Première projection des élections législatives post-dissolution :
–RN : 235 à 265 sièges
–Ensemble : 125 à 155 sièges
–NUPES : 115 à 145 sièges
–LR : 40 à 55 sièges
–Autres : 5 à 20 sièges pic.twitter.com/MYVjLjAPPI
— Rémi Clément (@remiclement_) June 10, 2024
It’s worth noting that the poll was conducted before the announcement that National Rally and the Republicans (LR) will form an alliance under a single ticket.
The possibility of such an alliance has been thrown into turmoil in recent days, however, after an attempted coup against the leader of the Republicans, Éric Ciotti, by members of his party who are unhappy about joining forces with Marine Le Pen.
With or without such an alliance, the polling is bad news for Macron. Although the presidency is not on the ballot, if Macron loses badly, he will come under extreme pressure to resign.
And even if he doesn’t resign, his parliamentary agenda will be totally stymied for the remaining two years of his presidency. Term limits prevent him from seeking re-election in 2027.
The first round of the parliamentary elections will be held on 30 June, with the second following on 7 July.
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