A new INSA survey has revealed that a majority of German citizens now believe that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) could become the strongest political force in the next federal election.
At the same time, nearly half of respondents say the AfD should be treated like any other party, amid attempts by Germany’s legacy party to ostracize the populist faction with an ongoing political firewall.
According to the survey, reviewed by the Junge Freiheit news outlet, 51 percent of respondents believe it is likely the AfD will win the most votes in the next Bundestag election. Only 27 percent disagree.
The findings, presented by INSA head Hermann Binkert on YouTube, point to a growing normalization of the AfD’s rise. Alice Weidel’s party became the second-largest party in the Bundestag after February’s election, but its popularity has continued to rise following the election-winning Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) decision to team up with the Social Democrats (SPD) to form another Grand Coalition.
Among AfD voters themselves, belief in victory is overwhelming at 87 percent. However, even supporters of traditionally centrist or left-leaning parties express similar expectations: 63 percent of BSW voters and 60 percent of FDP voters also think the AfD could come out on top. Only the SPD and Greens’ bases remain broadly skeptical.
Some 46 percent of Germans say the AfD should be treated like any other democratic party, compared with 33 percent who oppose this. While opposition remains strong among SPD, Green, and Left Party supporters, majorities within the CDU/CSU (49 percent), FDP (63 percent), and BSW (47 percent) now favor equal political treatment for the AfD. Unsurprisingly, 83 percent of AfD voters agree.
The softening of opposition contrasts with the hard stance taken by Germany’s major Christian churches, which have repeatedly condemned the AfD. However, voter behavior within the religious communities tells a different story.
Among Protestants, 26 percent support the AfD — second only to the CDU/CSU (28 percent) and way ahead of the Greens (7 percent). Catholic voters also give 25 percent support to the AfD, with the CDU/CSU again leading at 34 percent. The Greens trail with just 13 percent.
Among non-religious voters, the AfD is the most popular party (26 percent), surpassing the CDU/CSU (19 percent) and SPD (14 percent). Muslim voters, on the other hand, typically show strong support for left-wing, pro-migration parties, including the SPD (37 percent) and the Left Party (25 percent), with AfD support negligible at 5 percent.
A Forsa poll published this week showed the AfD out in front as the leading party in Germany for the first time in its history, attaining 26 percent, with the CDU/CSU a percentage point behind.
If the vote back in February were held today, the two parties set to enter government, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the CDU, would not have enough seats for their agreed coalition.
BREAKING: 🇩🇪The AfD party is now the most popular party in Germany for the first time ever, soaring to 26%.
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) April 22, 2025
The main German parties are working to ban the AfD, and a vote on a ban is expected in the coming months in the new Bundestag.
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The news comes at a time when the left is racing to vote on a ban on the AfD in the German parliament, the Bundestag.
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