Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 48-47% in the latest New York Times / Siena College poll.
According to The Times this is the first “major nonpartisan” national poll that places Trump above the Vice President.
Nate Cohn claims that the result is “a bit surprising,” but then admits it’s probably a good indication that Harris is failing to benefit from the exceptionally favorable coverage she’s been given in the mainstream media for well over a month, as well as the recent Democratic National Convention, which was expected to hand her a big “bounce” in popularity.
“That said, it wouldn’t be hard to explain if Vice President Harris’s support really has faded a bit in recent weeks,” Cohn writes.
“After all, she was benefiting from an ideal news environment: an uninterrupted month of glowing coverage from President Biden’s departure from the race in July to the Democratic convention in August. It’s possible she was riding a political sugar high; if so, it would make sense if she came off those highs in the two uneventful weeks since the convention.”
Cohn goes on to note that the survey shows Trump is “more popular than before,” with 46% of likely voters saying they have a favourable view of the former president.
Trump also appears to have a significant lead over Harris in the issues that matter most to voters.
What’s more, voters believe Trump is closer to the middle-ground of politics than Kamala Harris. A near-majority of respondents said he was “not too far” to the right or left of the major issues, while about the same number said Harris was too far to the left.
The poll will make for unwelcome news as Kamala Harris prepares for Tuesday night’s debate with Donald Trump live on ABC.
The Vice President is currently sequestered in a hotel in downtown Pittsburgh, in deep preparation for the debate. According to AP, “she’s been working with aides since Thursday and chose a venue that allows the Democratic nominee the option of mingling with swing-state voters.”
Another liberal poll, by analyst Nate Silver, gave Trump a huge advantage over Harris.
According to Silver, Trump is now at 61.5% odds of winning the election, with Kamala Harris at 38.3%.
The new prediction is a flip from Silver’s forecast just two weeks ago, on 23 August, when he predicted Harris as having a 53.5% chance of winning and Trump a 46.1% chance. That prediction came straight after the Democratic National Convention.
In his new poll, Silver also predicted that Trump had a 62-38% chance of winning Pennsylvania, a 52-48% chance of winning Michigan, the same margin in Wisconsin, a 75-25% chance of winning Arizona, similarly large margins in North Carolina and Georgia, and a 59-41% chance of winning Nevada.
Silver’s results would predict a massive Trump victory in the electoral college, 312-226.
Commentators have noted that Silver, who is a liberal, has “nothing to gain and everything to lose if his model bombs. He’s not doing this for clicks and clout.”
The debate will air on Tuesday at 9pm EDT on ABC and stream on ABC News Live, Disney+ and Hulu. ABC News Live is available on Samsung TV+, the Roku Channel, Amazon Fire devices, YouTube, Tubi and other streaming platforms.
