Romanian prime minister Marcel Ciolacu has resigned following the collapse of the ruling coalition, triggered by the first-round defeat of establishment-backed candidate Crin Antonescu in the repeat presidential election.
According to media sources, the decision to break up the coalition agreement with the center-right PNL (EPP) was initiated by Ciolacu’s social democrats (PSD/S&D), with the immediate resignation of the prime minister himself. The ministers will stay in their positions in a limited, interim role until the newly elected president, following the May 18th runoff, appoints a new PM to attempt to form a government.
On Tuesday morning, Interim President Ilie Bolojan appointed Deputy PM and Interior Minister Cătălin Predoiu, both members of PNL, as acting prime minister.
The current grand coalition took office only half a year ago, following an unusually weak electoral showing during the December parliamentary elections. The two large establishment parties were able to form a coalition government only with the help of the ethnic Hungarian UDMR (EPP), as well as the representatives of the other ethnic minorities.
The three governing parties are actively discussing ways to move forward, but there is no guarantee that they will attempt to form another coalition after the second round of the presidential elections in two weeks. The runoff will be a showdown between two anti-establishment candidates: the nationalist George Simion (AUR/ECR), and the independent Bucharest mayor, Nicușor Dan, supported by the liberal USR (Renew).
According to the Constitution, the president has the power to appoint a prime minister and give his party an opportunity to forge a majority. However, the president has no obligation to allow the largest party in the parliament to make the first attempt.
George Simion, the clear winner of Sunday’s first round, has repeatedly said that he would entrust government formation to his nationalist AUR party, which finished in second place in December. Moreover, he plans to appoint Călin Georgescu—the banned candidate whose alleged ties to Russia prompted the cancellation of the November election in the first place—as the next prime minister.
However, AUR and its two allied nationalist parties (SOS Romania and POT) control less than 35% of the parliament, and all other parties currently say they would join them in a coalition.
Still, if Simion becomes president, he is expected to give AUR the mandate to form a government, as two failed attempts (under two premier-designates) would trigger a new parliamentary election, in which nationalists might receive a much bigger share of the vote than they did six months ago.
However, there is also speculation that the socialist PSD would eventually join the AUR, just to remain in power. Publicly, Ciolacu suggested a center-right coalition between PNL, UDMR, and the liberal USR, and said he would be content with taking his socialists into opposition. However, he said the same back in December during the difficult coalition talks, which eventually resulted in the PSD taking most of the important government positions and reinstating him as prime minister.