A new poll by liberal analyst Nate Silver gives Donald Trump a huge advantage over his opponent Kamala Harris in the November presidential election.
According to Silver, Trump is now at 61.5% odds of winning the election, with Kamala Harris at 38.3%.
The new prediction is a flip from Silver’s forecast just two weeks ago, on 23 August, when he predicted Harris as having a 53.5% chance of winning and Trump a 46.1% chance. That prediction came straight after the Democratic National Convention.
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2024
August 23
🟦 Harris: 53.5%
🟥 Trump: 46.1%
September 6
🟥 Trump: 61.5%
🟦 Harris: 38.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 62-38%
Michigan – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Arizona – 🔴… pic.twitter.com/2JqxjoAr5O
In his new poll, Silver also predicted that Trump had a 62-38% chance of winning Pennsylvania, a 52-48% chance of winning Michigan, the same margin in Wisconsin, a 75-25% chance of winning Arizona, similarly large margins in North Carolina and Georgia, and a 59-41% chance of winning Nevada.
Silver’s results would predict a massive Trump victory in the electoral college, 312-226.
Commentators have noted that Silver, who is a liberal, has “nothing to gain and everything to lose if his model bombs. He’s not doing this for clicks and clout.”