Donald Trump has opened up a ten-point lead over Kamala Harris in the Hill’s election forecast, carried out in conjunction with Decision Desk.
The model predicts that, as of Sunday, Trump has a 52% chance of winning the presidency while Harris has a 42% chance.
This is a complete reversal of the situation in late August, when the forecast put Harris’s chances of winning at approximately 54-56%, with Trump’s chances at 44-46%.
In early October, the dynamics began to change, and both candidates’ chances were predicted to be closer to 50%. On 17 October, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month. Trump then took the advantage on 20 October.
The Hill states that the change reflects Trump’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, which had previously leaned towards Harris. “Trump already had a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.”
Only Pennsylvania still favors Harris.
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