Our neighbor Mexico is on the verge of changing presidents.
On October 1, the term of current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is scheduled to end, and the term of Claudia Sheinbaum is set to begin.
Sheinbaum, a member of AMLO’s MORENA party, is to be Mexico’s first female president and first Jewish president.
When another country has a change of leadership, it presents an opportunity to analyze possibilities and for pundits to read the tea leaves and make predictions.
AMLO ran for president three times before finally winning in 2018. MORENA, which he founded, was only registered as a political party 10 years ago. It’s now the dominant party in Mexico.
Claudia Sheinbaum is AMLO’s protégé, so it’s likely her policies will be the same, although her personality is different.
Also, there is the question of how much influence AMLO will continue to exercise. Though he’s promised to retire to his ranch and write books, it’s hard to imagine him completely fading from view.
Anyways, that’s Mexico’s business.
For those who are concerned about the U.S.-Mexico border, the Mexican presidential transition is a chance to ask, “How will this affect the border?” Or will it?
When we look at the past six years of the AMLO presidency, we discover some interesting trends.
Regarding border policy, AMLO’s term can be divided into two phases.
These periods correspond – not coincidentally – with U.S. presidencies.
Let’s call them the Trump Phase and the Biden Phase.
When AMLO took over, in December of 2018, Trump was president.
The Trump Phase, therefore, lasted from December of 2018 to January of 2021.
The Biden Phase lasted from January of 2021 to now, and is set to end in a few days on October 1.
So that’s two years and seven weeks of the Trump Phase, and three years and eight months of the Biden Phase.
There are big differences between these two chapters.
In 2018, one might have supposed that Trump and AMLO the leftist would be at perpetual loggerheads.
On the contrary, the very opposite was true.
Trump and AMLO got along famously, on a personal level and a policy level.
While both were president, I never read of a criticism of Trump by AMLO.
AMLO’s sympathy for Trump even extended to the bitter end of the Trump presidency and beyond. AMLO expresses more respect for Trump than many American politicians.
Examples:
- In the aftermath of the 2020 U.S. election, AMLO waited six weeks to recognize Biden as the winner, acknowledging that it was a disputed election.
- AMLO criticized the expulsion of Trump from Twitter.
- AMLO condemned both the first and second attempts to assassinate Trump.
- AMLO was asked about Trump’s controversial comments on Haitians in Springfield and blew it off with this reply: “Yes, I listened to the first part [of the Kamala-Trump debate], about the cats, the pets, but [Trump] was talking about migrants in general, not from Mexico in particular.”
LOL – the Mexican president doesn’t care if Trump says negative things about Haitians, only Mexicans!
Back to the border.
When AMLO and Trump were both in office, Trump used his foreign policy power to convince AMLO to help prevent many U.S.-bound migrants from passing through Mexico and to accept the Remain in Mexico plan .
The Biden Phase, on the other hand was an entirely different story. The Biden administration weaponized the border to bring in millions of illegals to resettle in the country.
AMLO cooperated with Biden on that project, as well.
And when the U.S. election drew near, and Biden wanted to cool down the border, AMLO helped with that, too. Mexico reduced the quantity of border crossers for U.S. election optics.
So what can we deduce from this recent history?
My conclusion: The critical question about the U.S. border is not, “Who is the President of Mexico?”
The critical question is, “Who is the President of the U.S.A. and what is his (or her) border policy?”
Consider that question when you vote, on or before November 5.
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