Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in Virginia, according to a new poll that should seriously worry the Harris campaign.
The new poll, from the University of Mary Washington, suggests that Trump really could flip the state red.
In a survey of 1,000 adults collected at the beginning of September, Harris had 47% support compared to Trump’s 46%. Third-party and independent candidates together received 4% of the of the vote, while the remaining 3% were undecided.
When the pollsters asked respondents to choose only between Trump and Harris, the poll favoured Harris 48-46, a result within the poll’s margin of error.
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” explained Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington.
“Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
A number of polls, including two last month, have suggested an extremely tight margin between Trump and Harris in Virginia. However, a Washington Post poll put the margin at eight points.
“Given the range of findings in Virginia surveys over the past two months, the Harris and Trump campaigns may be paying far too little attention to the Commonwealth,” Farnsworth added. “Virginians have a history of bouncing back and forth between the parties.”
Recent polling from Michigan and Minnesota should also concern the Harris campaign.
The gap in Minnesota, the home state of Harris’s VP pick Tim Walz, is now “the narrowest yet,” as independent voters favour Trump in ever-greater numbers. The choice of Walz as her running mate, a man who seriously divides opinion in Minnesota, especially among men, may prove a costly mistake for Harris.
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