After more than a decade of bloody civil war, it looks like Bashar Al-Assad is finally about to lose his grip on power, in Syria. The Assad dynasty, which began with his father Hafez in 1971, seems destined to fall. What comes next is anybody’s guess, but it’s unlikely to be the end of the turmoil in the country or the region.
In a stunning series of reversals, regime forces have melted away like ice cream on an August day in the full heat of runaway climate change. Damascus lies before the coalition of rebel forces—including radical Islamist groups—and the final blow may come within weeks, if not days. Maybe even hours.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump was in Paris today, at the reopening of Notre Dame cathedral, his first international engagement as president-elect. The real focus of his visit, however, was Ukraine. French premier Emmanuel Macron is looking to establish himself as a powerbroker between Europe and the new Trump regime, building on his famous “bromance” with Trump during his first term, which lasted all of about five minutes. Zelensky was invited to Paris too, and there were private meetings and awkward photo ops, in which Zelensky looked like a surly little teenager being brought before his father for a bloody good dressing-down—scarcely possible, you might say, since Zelensky was wearing those awful drab combat fatigues again.
There’s been some talk of a “golden exile” for Zelensky, probably in London, as part of a negotiated settlement that might also see British and French peacekeepers deployed in Ukraine, the formalisation of Russian territorial gains and the creation of a demilitarized buffer along the border with Russia.
Whether Zelensky and his wife will be forced to spend the rest of their lives shopping in Harrods and Harvey Nicks isn’t clear yet, but what is clear, for the first time, is that Europe’s leaders are contemplating an actual end to the war. And not a moment too soon. In recent weeks, with the use of American and British weapons platforms to strike targets deep inside Russia, and with Russia’s hypersonic retort, we’ve come as perilously close to nuclear war as at any point since 1945.
If the main diplomatic focus in Paris was Kiev, that didn’t stop Trump from thinking about events further east and south. Trump took time out from the ceremony to dictate a long tweet in which he reiterated his commitment to an America-first agenda on foreign policy, in the Middle East and beyond.
The post is worth quoting in full.
“Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad. Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
“This is not our fight”—if MAGA foreign policy has a maxim, that’s it. America and Americans should actually have a reason, a self-interested reason, to go to war. To spend billions or even trillions of dollars, over months, years or decades, and sacrifice the lives of hundreds or thousands of the nation’s finest young men and women. There has to be a reason.
In 2016, millions of Americans voted for Trump precisely because he promised an end to the forever wars of his predecessors and a clean break from the neocon policies of the George W. Bush era. He largely achieved that aim. At the very least, he prevented a war with Iran and deeper engagement in Syria—both certainties if Hillary Clinton had won.
The realignment Trump began in 2016 can now, after a four-year hiatus, be resumed.
As a general principle, I couldn’t agree more with Trump’s tweet.
But it’s clear that studied neutrality with regard to Syria may not turn out for the best.
For one thing, the US is not currently just an observer. The radical Islamist groups sweeping up the country have been financed for years by the US government. Remember that famous headline from The Los Angeles Times: “In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA.” That was March 2016, before Trump took office. Eight years later, the situation is still the same.
The end of the Assad regime will not bring more stability to the region. The power of Iran, stretching from Central Asia and the Caspian to the Mediterranean via its allies and proxies, has been largely broken. Shia hegemony is at an end. Israel will be pleased.
Or will it? In place of Iran, there will be a new Sunni domination, with Turkey at its head, and there’s no reason to believe it will be less aggressive or striving, or that it won’t interfere in the affairs of “America’s greatest ally.”
Erdogan and his supporters regularly talk of a new Ottomanism and make threatening noises towards former Ottoman possessions in Greece and the Balkans and across the region. Those noises will grow louder. Maybe they’ll become actions.
The other very dangerous possibility is migration.
It was the Syrian civil war that provoked Europe’s migrant crisis of 2015. Angela Merkel said “Wir schaffen das!”—“We can do it!”—and millions came. Europe has never been the same since.
The prospect of millions more being displaced, and inevitably making their way into the welcoming arms of Europe’s turncoat politicians—regardless of what the European people want—is a very real one, especially if the conflict in Syria devolves into ethnic cleansing. Experience says it will. It did before. These Middle Eastern wars always do.
I’m not saying that Trump should commit to supporting Bashar Al Assad. For one thing, it’s not clear he’ll even still be in power come 20th January, when Trump is sworn in. Without Russia’s support, Assad is almost certainly done for. He could be gone in the time it takes me to post this piece and choose a picture from Getty Images.
I am saying this, though: Trump must be alive to the truth that things don’t always remain so. This may not be our fight now, but one day it very well could be.